Follow the Market with Will

Summary: This week was mainly down. VOO declined 1.95%, QQQ declined 5.52%, and SMH declined 10.53%. Renewed selling in technology and semiconductor shares extended the week's pullback.

Key observation: Inflation keeps another rate increase on the table, but I expect political pressure ahead of the U.S. midterm elections to make Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reluctant to raise rates again in October.

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VOO closed at $701.61 and remained 2.35% below its intraday 52-week high; QQQ closed at $709.80 and remained 6.96% below its high; SMH closed at $539.79 and remained 19.65% below its high.

Among major technology companies, Nvidia fell 6.61%, Microsoft 1.13%, Alphabet 3.15%, Amazon 4.74%, Meta 1.30%, and Tesla 7.31% for the week, while Apple gained 2.03%.

Reuters reported increasing scrutiny of debt financing for AI infrastructure, with investors questioning whether companies could sustain aggressive capital spending while borrowing costs remained elevated. TSMC management described AI demand as very strong, projected roughly 44% U.S.-dollar revenue growth for 2026, and planned $60 billion–$64 billion in capital expenditure.

September CPI rose 0.6% month over month and 3.7% year over year, while core inflation was 2.6%; PPI rose 1.3% for the month and 6.3% annually. Retail sales rose 0.8%, but only 0.2% excluding gasoline stations, in nominal terms, while initial unemployment claims remained low at 199,000. The latest monthly jobs report showed payroll growth of 29,000 and unemployment of 4.2%.

Government bond yields fell even as corporate financing concerns persisted: the official 10-year Treasury yield declined from 5.24% to 5.09% over the week. Brent rose 3.7% on Friday to settle at $109.86, while spot gold was down about 0.7% for the week by Friday afternoon.

Summary: The technology selloff toward the end of the week stood out to me, especially in semiconductors. Wednesday and Thursday's declines interrupted the recovery, while Friday's rebound was uneven across major technology companies. I think the market remains unstable and sensitive to changes in AI revenue expectations and borrowing costs. VOO gained 1.14%; QQQ gained 0.23%; SMH declined 4.32% for the week.

Key observation: SMH's 4.32% weekly decline, leaving it 10.20% below its 52-week high, was the clearest sign of the technology weakness I noticed. QQQ gained only 0.23% for the week, while VOO gained 1.14%. Friday's index rebound was uneven, with Nvidia, Apple, and Meta still declining that day. I see the recovery as unsettled and sensitive to changing growth expectations.

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VOO closed at $715.59, up 1.14% for the week and 0.40% below its intraday 52-week high of $718.47. QQQ closed at $751.27, up 0.23% for the week and 1.52% below its intraday 52-week high of $762.86. SMH closed at $603.33, down 4.32% for the week and 10.20% below its intraday 52-week high of $671.83.

On Thursday, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.3% and the S&P 500 fell 0.5%; Nvidia declined 2.9%, AMD 3.9%, and Micron 4.8%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both rebounded about 0.6% on Friday. The late-week selloff therefore matters even though the broad indexes finished the week higher.

Reporting about OpenAI's September annualized revenue, near $50 billion compared with an earlier figure near $70 billion, added pressure to AI stocks. Reuters attributed the discrepancy mainly to the presentation of cloud-partner revenue for comparison with Anthropic. These figures describe a revenue run rate; they do not establish a realized $20 billion revenue loss.

Major technology companies had mixed weekly results: Nvidia fell 2.00% and Meta fell 1.29%, while Apple gained 0.88%, Microsoft 3.39%, Alphabet 2.38%, Amazon 4.34%, and Tesla 3.27%. On Friday, Amazon rose 3.29% and Microsoft 2.38%, while Nvidia fell 0.52%, Apple 1.11%, and Meta 0.31%. This uneven response is central to my observation that the market remains unstable.

Semiconductor business growth continued in parts of the industry. TSMC reported September revenue of NT$511.86 billion, up 54.6% year over year and down 0.6% from August. Samsung estimated third-quarter operating profit of KRW107.40 trillion, compared with KRW12.17 trillion a year earlier. Strong operating figures can coexist with volatile stock prices when investors reassess future expectations.

The latest economic data were mixed. September's ISM services PMI eased to 54.9 from 55.4, while its prices index rose to 74.0 from 72.6. Initial jobless claims were 197,000, versus 199,000 revised. October's preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 46.3 from 48.1, and year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7% from 4.6%. Services continued expanding and layoffs remained low, while price pressure and weak consumer confidence persisted.

Oil and bond-market swings added to the unsettled backdrop. Brent rose 4.1% to $104.28 on Thursday, while the 10-year Treasury yield swung from about 5.35% early that day to 5.23% later. The official 10-year Treasury rate ended Friday at 5.24%, below 5.28% a week earlier. Elevated borrowing costs remained relevant even though yields eased over the full week.

Gold also reversed direction: after touching a two-month low on Wednesday, spot gold was heading for a weekly gain of about 1.3% by Friday afternoon. The dollar-tracking ETF UUP gained 0.45% from Friday to Friday. Gold's midweek decline and late rebound provide another example of this week's reversals.

Summary: QQQ reached new 52-week intraday and closing highs on Friday, but the recovery was uneven: QQQ gained 0.68% and SMH gained 3.96%, while VOO fell 0.46%. I am curious whether AI-linked leadership and QQQ's concentration in large growth companies explain the gap. Gold weakened as the dollar and Treasury yields rose, while Bitcoin's weekly gain was modest.

Key observation: Why did QQQ break its 52-week high while VOO declined and SMH remained 6.14% below its own high? AI demand may be part of the answer, but the week's results were more selective than a simple technology-versus-traditional-companies split. Nvidia rose, while Apple and Meta fell; energy gained, while financials and health care lagged. I want to see whether this leadership broadens.

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QQQ closed at $749.58 after reaching a new intraday 52-week high of $754.54; it finished 0.66% below that peak. VOO closed at $707.54, down 0.46% for the week and 1.24% below its high. SMH closed at $630.60, up 3.96% for the week but still 6.14% below its high.

The technology sector ETF XLK gained 1.80% for the week, while financials (XLF) fell 2.46% and health care (XLV) fell 2.65%. Energy (XLE) gained 1.26%, and the equal-weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) fell 0.65%. QQQ tracks large Nasdaq-listed nonfinancial companies, so its mix differs from VOO's broader S&P 500 exposure. These figures show selective leadership rather than all traditional sectors falling.

Among major technology companies, Nvidia gained 3.95% for the week, while Apple fell 2.16% and Meta fell 3.14%. Microsoft gained 0.26%, Amazon gained 0.74%, and Alphabet fell 0.12%. Tesla rose 4.65% on Friday after reporting 486,532 third-quarter vehicle deliveries, but fell 0.41% for the full week. Micron reported record fiscal fourth-quarter results and pointed to AI-driven demand, yet its shares also finished the week slightly lower.

September payrolls increased by 29,000, unemployment was 4.2%, and July and August payroll estimates were revised down by a combined 60,000. August job openings were little changed at 7.1 million. The softer jobs report helped reduce expectations for another October rate increase and supported Friday's technology rebound, although the 10-year Treasury yield still rose from 5.17% on September 25 to 5.28% on October 2.

August real consumer spending rose 0.6% from July, while the PCE price index rose 0.3% for the month and 3.4% from a year earlier; core PCE inflation was 3.0% year over year. The latest estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at a 2.2% annual rate. September's manufacturing PMI was 54.5, but its prices index climbed to 77.9. This mix points to continuing demand and price pressure alongside slower hiring.

Gold lost about 3.4% for the week in spot trading by Friday afternoon. UUP, a dollar-tracking ETF, gained 0.94% from Friday to Friday, and the 10-year real Treasury yield rose from 2.83% to 2.92%; these are plausible pressures on gold. Bitcoin's UTC closing price rose only 0.51%, from $84,076 on September 25 to $84,506 on October 2. Its modest rise does not establish a shift from gold into Bitcoin.

My working view is that AI-related strength and Friday's rate relief helped QQQ recover, but the full-week picture remains uneven. I am watching whether gains spread beyond the current leaders and whether dollar and yield pressure ease.

Summary: All three ETFs I track rose this week. VOO gained 1.28%, QQQ gained 3.19%, and SMH gained 5.86%. The rebound was encouraging, especially in semiconductors. Oil’s decline on Friday offered some relief, although Treasury yields finished the week higher and inflation concerns remain.

Key observation: What stood out to me was that VOO, QQQ, and SMH all moved higher, with SMH showing the strongest weekly gain. I see this as a positive rebound. SMH is still 9.72% below its 52-week high, however, so I want to see whether the improvement continues.

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VOO closed at $710.79, up 1.28% for the week and 0.78% below its 52-week high. QQQ closed at $744.50, up 3.19% and 0.55% below its high. SMH closed at $606.56, up 5.86% but still 9.72% below its high.

Brent crude fell 2.8% on Friday to $97.44 per barrel as hopes for progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz eased some pressure on stocks. A resolution to the conflict was not confirmed.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 5.01% on September 18 to 5.17% on September 25. Friday’s final University of Michigan survey also put year-ahead inflation expectations at 4.6%, compared with 4.0% in August. These remain risks even as the ETFs recovered.

For now, I view this as a constructive week across all three ETFs, led by semiconductors. The remaining SMH drawdown and higher yields are reasons to watch whether the rebound continues.

Summary: The FOMC meeting was the most important development this week. Before the decision, the market had already absorbed much of the increased interest-rate risk, and the outcome broadly aligned with expectations: the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points while keeping its 2% inflation goal unchanged. After the initial Wednesday reaction, the market rebounded strongly on Thursday and continued more selectively on Friday. VOO declined 0.11% for the week, while QQQ gained 0.92% and SMH gained 0.79%.

Key observation: The market's reaction after the FOMC meeting was more important than the rate increase alone. The Fed confirmed tighter policy, but the decision was not a major surprise, and equities were able to recover after the uncertainty was removed. Thursday's rebound was broad, while Friday's gains were narrower and concentrated in technology and semiconductors, so I view the response as evidence that the market had already absorbed much of the increased risk rather than confirmation of a broad recovery.

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VOO declined 0.11%, QQQ gained 0.92%, and SMH gained 0.79% this week. VOO closed at $701.78 and remained 2.04% below its 52-week high; QQQ closed at $721.45 and remained 3.63% below its high; SMH closed at $573.00 and remained 14.71% below its high.

The Federal Reserve unanimously raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%. The decision was widely expected, and the Fed maintained its 2% inflation goal while emphasizing that inflation remains elevated and that economic activity is expanding at a solid pace.

The September projections showed a median year-end federal funds rate of 4.1%, consistent with one additional quarter-point increase this year. The policy path therefore remains restrictive, but the September increase itself had already been largely incorporated into market expectations before the meeting.

After declining following Wednesday's announcement, the market rebounded strongly on Thursday: the S&P 500 gained 1.1%, the Dow gained 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.7%. Falling oil prices and easing Treasury yields also helped the market move beyond the immediate FOMC uncertainty.

The bounce continued more selectively on Friday. The S&P 500 gained 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.4%, while the Dow declined 0.2% and most stocks fell. Semiconductor strength helped support the Nasdaq, showing that the post-FOMC resilience was real but not evenly distributed across the market.

For now, I think the market's ability to rebound after the rate increase shows that much of the policy risk had already been absorbed. However, SMH remains 14.71% below its 52-week high and Friday's market breadth was weak, so more confirmation is still needed before calling this a broad or completed recovery.

Summary: The market faced substantial pressure for most of the week as renewed U.S.-Iran fighting pushed oil prices sharply higher and reinforced inflation concerns. VOO declined 0.77% and QQQ declined 0.57%, while SMH gained only 0.27% and remained 15.38% below its 52-week high. Strong but concentrated employment growth and firmer monthly CPI increased expectations for a September Fed rate hike, although Friday's decline in oil prices helped equities recover part of their earlier losses.

Key observation: The combination of geopolitical disruption and monetary-policy risk was more important than any single data point. Oil supply constraints raised near-term inflation pressure, while the August CPI and employment reports made a 25-basis-point Fed increase more likely. I think the employment data remain relatively resilient, but the concentration of job growth in a few industries means one strong month is not enough to confirm a durable acceleration.

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VOO declined 0.77%, QQQ declined 0.57%, and SMH gained 0.27% this week. VOO closed at $702.56 and remained 1.93% below its 52-week high; QQQ closed at $714.88 and remained 4.51% below its high; SMH closed at $568.53 and remained 15.38% below its high.

The Iran war remained the week's largest external pressure. The IEA reported that Brent futures were near $105 per barrel when its September report was prepared, up $21 since the beginning of August, while Gulf oil exports in August were still nearly 50% below prewar levels. Brent's sharp Thursday rise weighed on equities, although a 2.8% pullback to $104.61 on Friday helped the market recover.

August CPI rose 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year. Gasoline rose 3.9% and accounted for more than one-third of the monthly increase, while core CPI rose 0.3% for the month and slowed to 2.4% year over year. Inflation pressure increased during the month, but energy was a major driver.

After the CPI release, CME FedWatch indicated about an 85% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting, up from about 71% one day earlier. This was a market-implied probability rather than a confirmed Fed decision, but the change in expectations added pressure to bonds and equities.

August payrolls increased by 162,000 and unemployment remained at 4.1%, while weekly initial unemployment claims were 206,000. These figures indicate that employment conditions remain relatively stable. However, job growth was concentrated in food services and local government education, with the education increase largely offsetting the prior month's decline, so I do not think one strong month is enough to confirm a durable acceleration.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both rose about 1% on Friday as oil prices eased, but they still declined 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively, for the full week. Friday's rebound reduced the weekly losses but did not remove the underlying pressure from oil, inflation, and changing interest-rate expectations.

Summary: The broader market finished the week almost unchanged, while semiconductor stocks showed a sharp late-week rebound. VOO and QQQ remained close to their recent highs, but SMH is still substantially below its previous peak. Although the weekly SMH return was positive, most of the gain occurred on Friday, so I do not think this is enough to confirm a change in the semiconductor trend.

Key observation: The broad market continues to look much more stable than the semiconductor sector. VOO remains only 1.17% below its 52-week high and QQQ 3.97% below, while SMH is still 15.60% below its high. SMH showed some stabilization at the end of the week, but the large remaining drawdown and highly concentrated Friday rebound suggest that more confirmation is still needed.

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VOO gained 0.11%, QQQ gained 0.35%, and SMH gained 2.51% this week. VOO closed at $708.01 and remained 1.17% below its 52-week high; QQQ closed at $718.96 and remained 3.97% below its high; SMH closed at $567.01 but remained 15.60% below its high.

The timing of the SMH rebound is important. SMH closed at $553.11 on August 28 and was still only $552.60 by Thursday, September 3. It then jumped 2.61% on Friday to $567.01. Therefore, almost all of this week's 2.51% gain came from a single trading session rather than a sustained recovery across the week.

The broader market absorbed a substantial change in interest-rate expectations without breaking down. August payrolls increased by 162,000, much stronger than expected, while unemployment remained at 4.1%. The stronger labor data increased expectations for a September Fed rate hike and pushed Treasury yields higher, but the S&P 500 still finished the full week about 0.1% higher and the Nasdaq about 0.4% higher.

AI and semiconductor fundamentals remained very strong, but stock-price reactions continued to show high expectations and valuation sensitivity. Broadcom reported $29.6 billion in quarterly revenue, up 86% year over year, while AI semiconductor revenue reached $16.7 billion, up 221%. Despite these results, Broadcom fell more than 4% after earnings as investors focused on guidance and future expectations.

Geopolitical and energy risks also remained elevated during the week. WTI crude jumped 5.2% to $90.22 on Tuesday after renewed U.S.-Iran fighting raised concerns about supply disruptions. Despite higher oil prices, elevated yields, and a stronger jobs report, the broader equity market still ended the week close to unchanged.

For now, I think the broader market remains relatively stable, while semiconductor stocks are still going through a high-volatility normalization period. Friday's SMH rebound is encouraging, but one strong session is not enough for me to consider the semiconductor correction over.

Summary: The broader market stabilized this week, with VOO and QQQ posting modest gains, while SMH continued to weaken. I think the technology and semiconductor sectors are still going through a normalization process after the earlier AI-driven valuation peak, with elevated volatility likely to continue as investors reassess growth expectations and interest-rate risk.

Key observation: The divergence between broad equities and semiconductors remains clear. VOO and QQQ recovered modestly, while SMH continued to weaken and remains well below its 52-week high. This suggests that the current correction is still concentrated in AI and semiconductor stocks rather than representing a broad market breakdown.

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VOO gained 0.50%, QQQ gained 0.42%, and SMH declined 1.30% this week. VOO remained only 1.28% below its 52-week high, while QQQ and SMH remained 4.30% and 17.67% below their highs, respectively. Semiconductor weakness remains the clearest source of market divergence.

Nvidia reported another strong quarter, with revenue reaching $96.2 billion, up 106% year over year, and guided to about $108 billion for the next quarter. The stock jumped 8.7% on Thursday and closed at $227.98, but the broader semiconductor response remained uneven. Marvell fell 10.28% on Friday to $216.62 despite beating estimates, while Nvidia, AMD, Intel, Micron, and other chip stocks also weakened into the end of the week. This suggests that AI demand remains strong, but investors are becoming more sensitive to valuation, guidance, and execution.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh maintained a hawkish stance at Jackson Hole, emphasizing that inflation remains too high. Higher bond yields continue to pressure technology and semiconductor valuations by increasing discount-rate risk.

South Korea remains an especially clear example of the current semiconductor volatility. The KOSPI reached a record high of about 9,386 in June, then fell roughly 40% to 5,594 by July 30. By August 28 it had recovered to 6,789, about 21% above the trough but still around 28% below the peak. This large two-way movement reinforces the view that semiconductor-heavy markets are still going through a major repricing cycle.

For now, I think the previous technology and semiconductor market high may represent an important near-term peak rather than a level that will be immediately regained. My base case is that valuations may continue normalizing over the next one to two months, but more confirmation is still needed.

Summary: The market entered another risk-off week, with weakness concentrated in technology and semiconductor stocks. While broad equities remained relatively resilient, AI-related stocks stayed under pressure as investors balanced long-term AI investment opportunities against elevated interest-rate risks.

Key observation: The current market weakness appears to reflect selective de-risking from high-beta AI and semiconductor exposure rather than a broad market breakdown. VOO remained close to its highs, while QQQ and especially SMH continued to underperform.

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VOO declined 1.39%, QQQ declined 2.41%, and SMH declined 4.66% this week. VOO remained only 1.77% below its 52-week high, while QQQ and SMH remained 4.70% and 16.58% below their highs, respectively. Semiconductor weakness remains the primary source of equity market pressure.

Bitcoin gained 7.49% this week and extended its rally above $77,000, showing continued strength in alternative assets despite weakness in technology equities.

AI infrastructure investment remained a major long-term market theme. Estimated cumulative AI infrastructure investment has exceeded $1 trillion since the beginning of the AI boom, reinforcing the long-term AI growth narrative while increasing investor focus on future returns, capital efficiency, and valuation.

Long-term Treasury yields remained a key macro risk. The 30-year Treasury yield reached around 5.3%, the highest level since 2007, while the 10-year yield approached 4.7%. Yields later eased toward approximately 4.65% for the 10-year and 5.20% for the 30-year following market stabilization measures.

Elevated long-term yields continue to pressure high-duration technology companies by increasing discount rates, contributing to the continued underperformance of QQQ and SMH relative to the broader market.

Summary: The market continued to recover this week, but the rebound was much weaker than last week. Inflation continued to cool, reducing near-term Fed tightening pressure, while softer consumer data also suggest that economic growth is beginning to slow.

Key observation: The recovery remains positive, but weaker momentum in semiconductors and continued macro and currency uncertainty suggest that more confirmation is still needed.

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VOO gained 0.41%, QQQ 1.11%, and SMH 0.88% this week, much weaker than last week's rebound. SMH remains 12.50% below its 52-week high, suggesting that the semiconductor recovery is still incomplete.

July CPI rose 0.1% month over month and 3.4% year over year, while core CPI was 2.5% year over year. Retail sales fell 0.6% month over month, suggesting that inflation is cooling while consumer demand is also beginning to soften.

AI infrastructure financing is expanding beyond Big Tech balance sheets. Nvidia announced partnerships with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR to mobilize more than $500 billion of third-party capital for AI infrastructure.

The yen weakened about 0.9% this week to around ¥159 per dollar after strengthening to nearly ¥155 following the U.S.-Japan intervention. The intervention helped temporarily, but the yen remains structurally weak and currency risk is still worth monitoring.

Summary: This week showed a strong rebound across VOO, QQQ, and SMH. Cooling labor-market data reduced expectations of another near-term Fed rate hike, but it is still too early to confirm a sustained recovery, especially in semiconductors.

Key observation: The rebound is a positive signal, but I still think the recovery needs more confirmation as macro and currency risks remain unstable.

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VOO gained 3.50%, QQQ 5.09%, and SMH 7.80% this week. However, SMH remains 13.27% below its 52-week high, suggesting that the semiconductor recovery is still incomplete.

July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, unemployment was 4.1%, and May and June payrolls were revised down by a combined 103,000. The weaker labor market reduced expectations of another near-term Fed rate hike.

The Japanese yen remained volatile. Japan confirmed that it purchased yen in coordination with the U.S. Treasury on July 31, while both sides remain in close communication about further intervention.

Competition among major AI companies remains intense, with technology, leadership, and talent changing quickly. Alphabet reorganized Google DeepMind this week, with Demis Hassabis moving to a broader scientific role and Jeff Dean leaving after 27 years.

Summary: This week remained highly volatile. VOO and QQQ recovered modestly, while SMH declined sharply as semiconductor weakness and macro uncertainty continued.

Key observation: Although the broader market recovered by the end of the week, elevated long-term yields and continued semiconductor weakness suggest that the recovery remains fragile. The sharp appreciation of the yen also adds another source of macro risk.

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The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, but the meeting was hawkish. Three officials supported a 25-basis-point hike, while long-term Treasury yields remained elevated.

AI, memory-chip, and semiconductor stocks declined sharply, especially in South Korea, amid valuation concerns, uncertainty around AI infrastructure spending, and stronger competition from China.

China’s CXMT completed a RMB57.92 billion Shanghai IPO, while Reuters also reported progress in domestic immersion DUV lithography. These developments may increase future competition in memory chips and semiconductor equipment.

The Japanese yen strengthened sharply, increasing concerns about yen carry-trade unwinding. I do not think this indicates a systemic crisis, but the risk of broader deleveraging remains worth monitoring.

Summary: This week the market continued to weaken, with VOO and QQQ extending their declines. Although SMH posted a modest rebound, it remained well below its recent high, suggesting that the semiconductor sector has not yet established a sustained recovery.

Key observation: Despite a modest gain in SMH, the broader market has not shown convincing signs of recovery, as VOO and QQQ both continued to weaken.

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VOO and QQQ both declined again this week, indicating continued weakness in the broader market and large-cap technology.

Major companies released Q2 earnings this week. Tesla and IBM disappointed investors, while Alphabet delivered strong operating results. However, continued AI spending remained a key market concern and weighed on investor sentiment.

SMH posted a modest weekly rebound, but it remained substantially below its 52-week high. At this stage, the rebound appears more like a pause within the broader decline than a confirmed recovery.

Overall, I do not think the market has shown convincing signs of recovery yet. I will continue focusing on long-term trends rather than reacting to short-term market fluctuations.

Summary: This week saw a significant market pullback, especially in the AI-related semiconductor sector represented by SMH. The overall tone of market commentary became noticeably more bearish, but I do not think the long-term outlook has changed.

Key observation: Short-term price movements can create a lot of noise, but they should always be interpreted together with macroeconomic data rather than market sentiment alone.

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This week's drawdown widened across all three ETFs, with SMH deteriorating the most. Week-over-week returns also turned negative across all three ETFs, confirming the short-term weakness.

Headline CPI inflation came in lower than expected (3.5% vs. 3.8% forecast), which I view as a positive sign for the long-term economy.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized the importance of obtaining a proper reading of economic conditions and reviewing the Fed's existing policy framework. He also maintained a hawkish stance on inflation and reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to restoring price stability.

For now, I still believe the long-term economic outlook remains in good shape. I do not want short-term fluctuations and market noise to create unnecessary psychological pressure or influence my long-term investment decisions.

Summary: This week was the first time I learned how to interpret drawdown and week-over-week return together. Before, I mostly focused on weekly returns. This week I realized that drawdown provides the long-term context that weekly performance alone cannot show.

Key observation: Weekly performance is more meaningful when viewed alongside each ETF's distance from its 52-week high.

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VOO and QQQ have recovered most of their previous declines and remain close to their 52-week highs. The broader market appears to have regained most of its previous weakness.

SMH posted the strongest weekly rebound, but it remains well below its previous high. The semiconductor sector is still in the recovery phase, and it is too early to tell whether this recovery will continue.

Looking at these charts over time makes it much easier to identify trends. Instead of focusing on a single week's gain or loss, I can see whether each ETF is moving toward or away from its previous high.